Trade policy in the United States has been in flux in recent months. A theoretical analysis of recent increases in U.S. tariffs, including potential retaliatory tariffs by other countries, suggests a ...

Financial markets—specifically derivatives—contain information about the range of probable future short-term interest rates.

With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective, there is renewed interest in understanding how quickly federal funds rate hikes typically affect inflation. Beyond monetary policy’s well ...

An enduring consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic is a notable shift toward remote and hybrid work. This has raised questions regarding whether the shift had a significant effect on the growth rate of ...

Extreme heat decreases labor productivity in sectors like construction, where much work occurs outdoors. Because construction is an important component of investment, lost productivity today will slow ...

Immigrants contribute a large portion of the growth in the U.S. population and labor force. However, immigration flows into the United States slowed significantly following immigration policy changes ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

The labor force participation (LFP) rate for prime-age workers surged from early 2021 through early 2023, especially for women. This helped reduce the large shortfall of available workers relative to ...

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven ...

Inflation still lies somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal after slowing significantly since its spring 2022 peak. Analysis shows that two labor market indicators—the ratios of job vacancies to ...

Workers age 55 and older left the labor force in large numbers following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, participation within this age group has yet to return to pre-pandemic ...